There is a chance that by 2019, pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Shohei Otani could both be major leaguers. In 2009, MLB scouts flocked to Hanamaki Higashi High School, in Iwate Prefecture, to flirt with Kikuchi, a fire-balling lefty, before returning a few years later to put a full-court press on Otani.
Both ended up staying in Japan, Kikuchi being drafted by the Seibu Lions in 2009 and the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters making a bold bid for Otani in 2012. The MLB rumblings have come back this offseason, as reports have both possibly making the move in the near future.
No one questions Otani’s credentials, which, to the chagrin of opposing batters and pitchers alike, have been readily on display.
Kikuchi, who will begin his seventh ichi-gun season in 2017, however, remains more of a mystery. Did he at long last turn the corner in 2016, or was it fool’s gold? If he harbors MLB ambitions, he might have to provide the answer very soon.
Reports last week suggested the Lions could make the pitcher available to MLB clubs after the 2018 season, provided he puts together good numbers over the next two years. He’s set a goal for himself of reaching double-digits victories in 2017 and ’18.
Just reaching double digits isn’t an incredibly ambitious goal for a pitcher of Kikuchi’s talent. Not to mention that with what might again be a potent offense supporting him, Kikuchi should be able to reach at least 10 wins by just not being awful. Then again, the reality is that last year, when he won a team-high 12, was the only season he’s reached double figures.
So is 2017 the year the real Kikuchi stands up? It will certainly be the year he has the most to prove to Lions fans, and the first step on a possible path to the majors.
Success likely won’t be just a ten-win season. That isn’t to decry the value of reaching double-digits, but his other numbers and overall performance have to be up to par. Otani can get away with a 10-win year, because he is so overpowering in other areas. Kikuchi is trying to get there.
There is no denying he has the talent. In 2016, he was 12-7 with a 2.58 ERA in 22 starts. He struck out 127 in 143 innings and ended the year with 1.29 walks plus hits per innings pitched.
He was the hardest-throwing lefty in Japan, with a fastball averaging 147.2 kph (according to numbers compiled by Baseball Times), trailing only right-handers Otani (154.7), Shintaro Fujinami (149.5) and Anthony Bass (147.4) among all pitchers. Batters with runners in scoring position hit just .202 against him, fifth best in the Pacific League.
The Lions scoring 4.97 runs per game for him (per Baseball Times), second only to 6.11 in Shinsaburo Tawata’s 18 starts, helped in the wins column. But Kikuchi, who had a 3.29 fielding independent pitching average, also simply had a good year. He mixed his pitches better, increasing his slider usage and throwing his curveball into the mix more often, in addition to the hard stuff and a changeup.
Kikuchi has come to a crossroads, and the chance to pitch in North America that he passed up years ago may be coming back around. Unlike Otani, he still has a lot to prove in Japan. Kikuchi has enough skill to stand with the elite, he just needs to produce now. The Lions will certainly need him to with former ace Takayuki Kishi now with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.
As for the future, a hard-throwing lefty will usually find willing suitors, but Kikuchi may need to prove, to fans and perhaps himself, that he can stay afloat in NPB before diving into MLB’s depths.
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